Weippert Wednesday: Seven games remain

The Kansas Jayhawks have finally closed out arguably the most difficult stretch of their season. It started with a loss in Morgantown, and then came a win in Lexington. The Jayhawks then underwent a two-game home stretch, taking down previously No. 2 Baylor, but dropping a thriller to Iowa State, a team they lead by 14 at the half. Now that that big stint is over, it is time to look forward to the final seven games of conference play, including a trip to Waco and a date with the Mountaineers at home.

Here is a complete breakdown of the rest of the schedule, with a projected percentage/chance of the Jayhawks losing each game:

Saturday, February 11 at Texas Tech

Kansas had no issues with the Red Raiders in Lawrence, running Texas Tech out of the gym in the Jayhawks’ largest win in conference play, by a margin of 17. The United Supermarkets Arena should not be as intimidating as Bramlage Coliseum, or Hilton or WVU Coliseum. Anthony Livingston plays a huge role in the Red Raider set, and the Jayhawks have had trouble covering the paint. That might present KU with some trouble, but as long as it brings energy, it should be able to pull out a win.

KU chance to win: 80%.

Monday, February 13 vs. West Virginia

Kansas started well in Morgantown, but West Virginia pushed a huge run on the Jayhawks in the first contest two weeks ago. The Jayhawks have had a rough go at West Virginia since the Mountaineers joined the conference, but they have run the table at home, which is common for any of the teams they face at Allen Fieldhouse. Although this past Saturday showed us that you cannot completely count out an upset in the Phog, especially with West Virginia, the Jayhawks shouldn’t lose two home games in a row.

KU chance to win: 65%.

Saturday, February 18 at Baylor

Kansas narrowly avoided an upset vs. the Bears last week in Allen Fieldhouse, a team that arguably is a miss-match with the Jayhawks. Baylor has much more size inside than Kansas does. Usually in road games in the Big 12, the Jayhawks basically walk into a full house each game, with fans anticipating an upset on one of the best teams in the nation. But things are different in Waco, an arena in the Ferrell Center that struggles to get noisy or rowdy like Kansas State. The location does not matter, though. Baylor played well at Kansas, so expect a good game in Waco.

KU chance to win: 60%.

Wednesday, February 22 vs. TCU

Kansas vs. TCU at home may look like a piece of cake, but give credit to Jamie Dixon’s Horned Frogs, who are rounding out the middle of the Big 12, ahead of Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Chances are TCU will get run out of the building, but expect them to bring a fight to the Jayhawks, who will be attempting to close out their quest for their 13th Big 12 title in a row.

KU chance to win: 90%.

Saturday, February 25 at Texas

It has not exactly been the season Shaka Smart envisioned, as his Longhorns are struggling to stay from the bottom of the conference with Oklahoma. Texas, much like Baylor, struggles to fill their arena with rowdy fans. Texas does have center Jarrett Allen, the perfect big man to drop 30 on the Jayhawks, which could cause problems down the stretch. But Texas has been terrible this year, so it’s possible Kansas will open on a stunning run like they did in their previous two matchups.

KU chance to win: 80%.

Monday, February 27 vs. Oklahoma

Possibly the most shocking thing that has come out of the conference slate so far is that Oklahoma is sitting dead last in the standings. Such events are unfamiliar to Lon Kruger, who saw his Sooners finish third last year. Oklahoma’s only marquee win was at West Virginia, where they simply outplayed a sluggish Mountaineer team. There will be no three-overtime thriller this time around. Kansas should take care of the Sooners.

KU chance to win: 85%.

Saturday, March 4 at Oklahoma State

Bill Self’s road kryptonite: Morgantown and Stillwater. It seems like every year, the Jayhawks head down there on some ten game win streak, and see Phil Forte knock down threes, and the Jayhawks. Cut it out with the Perry Ellis jokes, Phil Forte has seemingly been with the Pokes for 20 years. Will this finally be a year where the Jayhawks walk out of Gallagher Iba unscathed?

KU chance to win: 40%.

Average probability of a Kansas win in final seven conference games: 75%

‘Weippert Wednesdays’ are contributions from Nick Weippert each week. View his archive, or follow him on Twitter.