Who Stays and Who Goes? 2015-16 Big 12 Season Lookahead (Part 1)

Fans of the Kansas Jayhawks love Big 12 championships, and fresh after winning an 11th straight crown, people are already looking ahead to the 2015-16 season. The Big 12 was one of the best conferences in college basketball this year. Loaded from top to bottom, the league was rewarded with an astounding 70% NCAA tournament rate, and it figures to be very competitive again next season.

Using information put together from user nallen34 on the Iowa State fan site Cyclone Fanatics, let’s take an expanded look at the impending personnel changes for each of Big 12 schools. Today, we’ll run through the three teams that finished at the bottom of the 2014-15 Big 12 standings: Texas Tech, TCU, and Kansas State.

Texas Tech Red Raiders
2015 finish: 13-19 overall, 3-15 conference (10th)

Players Leaving/Potentially Leaving:
Robert Turner, senior, 6’3″ SG – Graduating
8.3 points, 2.9 rebounds, 24.4 minutes

Alex Foster, sophomore, 6’8″ C – Transferring
1.0 points, 6.0 minutes, 6.0 minutes

Justin Jamison, sophomore, 6’9″ PF – Dismissed from the team on 2/4/14
2.7 points, 2.0 rebounds, 7.1 minutes

Adding:
C.J. Williamson, 6’6″ PG – #219 overall on 247 Sports

Jordan Jackson, 6’3″ SG – unranked

Analysis:
The Red Raiders haven’t finished better than second-to-last in the Big 12 since the 2009-10 season, but there is optimism for the future in Lubbock. Tubby Smith’s squad will return four of its five starters from last year’s 13-19 team, including top scorer Devaugntah Williams (10.5) and top rebounder Zach Smith (4.9). 6’9″, 265 lbs. big man Norense Odiase is also coming off of a promising freshman campaign in which he averaged 7.0 points, 4.7 rebounds, and led Texas Tech with a 50.6% shooting percentage.

Even with Turner’s departure, Texas Tech will return the majority of their core players. Turner played a much smaller role in 2015 than he did the year prior, so the Red Raiders’ team will be very similar from a personnel standpoint as it was this season.

The Red Raiders’ incoming class includes two guards that, along with returning backcourt members Keenan Evans and Randy Onwuasor, should fill in the 24 minutes per game provided by Turner. Texas Tech will feature two senior guards running the show, and if the young frontcourt can mature, the Red Raiders appear ready to take a step forward in year three of the Tubby Smith era.

TCU Horned Frogs
2015 finish: 18-15 overall, 4-14 conference (9th)

Players Leaving/Potentially Leaving:
Kyan Anderson, senior, 5’11” PG – Graduating
13.4 points, 4.3 assists, 32.0 minutes

Trey Zeigler, senior, 6’5″ SF – Graduating
10.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 27.3 minutes

Amric Fields, senior, 6’9″ PF – Graduating
7.5 points, 3.6 rebounds, 18.5 minutes

Adding:
Jalon Miller, 6’8 SF – #245 on 247 Sports

Lyrik Shreiner, 6’4 SG – unranked

Analysis:
TCU made big improvements in 2014-15, including a perfect 13-0 non-conference slate, an appearance in the AP Top 25, and even though it only won four conference games, TCU managed to keep 7 of its 15 losses within single-digits. However, Trent Johnson’s squad will be forced to overcome some major losses, the biggest of which being senior point guard Kyan Anderson. The Horned Frogs will miss the graduate’s 13 points and four assists per contest averages, and he was also the senior leader of the team. Anderson averaged over 30 minutes in each of his last three seasons, so filling the void of a guy who led the team in scoring three straight years will be extremely difficult. Zeigler was the only other player besides Anderson to average double-digit points, and his 2.1 assists also ranked second on the team.

As for Fields, his senior season once looked to be much brighter than it actually was. After averaging 32 minutes and 13 points in his junior season, a toe injury suffered in February 2014 sidelined the power forward until the Horned Frogs’ fifth game of 2014-15. He never returned to full form from his injury, playing 25 minutes or more in just six contests.

When it comes to returning players, Johnson has stacked young big men on his bench for this exact situation. Kenrich Williams, Chris Washburn, and Karviar Shepherd are TCU’s top three returning players in all major stat categories. Williams led the Horned Frogs with 6.7 boards, while Washburn’s 1.4 blocks per game mark topped all others. The backcourt appears to be the biggest hole, as sophomore Chauncey Collins figures to move into the rotation after averaging just over nine minutes per contest. Junior Michael Williams sits atop the point guard depth chart following Anderson’s departure, and despite a small sample size of five minutes per game, his 61% field goal percentage led the team.

The Horned Frogs lose three of their top four players in minutes, but Johnson is sure to lure a player or two to Ft. Worth via transfer. His freshman class currently includes two recruits, neither one of whom appear to be ready to make an immediate impact. TCU was one of the best rebounding teams in the country last season, and there’s plenty of reason to believe that the Horned Frogs will continue to thrive inside and scare teams in tough, grind-it-out style conference games.

Kansas State Wildcats
2015 finish: 15-17 overall, 8-10 conference (8th)

Players Leaving/Potentially Leaving:
Marcus Foster, sophomore, 6’3″ SG – Dismissed from the team on 3/24/15
12.5 points, 1.9 assists, 27.8 minutes

Thomas Gipson, senior, 6’7″ C – Graduating
11.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 28.8 minutes

Nino Williams, senior, 6’5″ PF – Graduating
11.4 points, 5.3 rebounds, 26.9 minutes

Nigel Johnson, sophomore, 6’1″ G – Transferring
5.2 points, 1.7 assists, 17.9 minutes

Jevon Thomas, sophomore, 6’0″ PG – Transferring
4.5 points, 3.3 assists, 25.8 minutes

Tre Harris, freshman, 6’5″ SG – Transferring
3.8 points, 10.0 minutes

Adding:
Dean Wade, 6’8″ PF – #109 overall on Rivals, #163 overall on 247 Sports

Barry Brown, 6’3″ PG – #224 overall on 247 Sports

Kamau Stokes, 5’11” PG – unranked

Dante Williams, 6’11” C – unranked

Analysis:
After K-State’s worst season in recent memory, the Wildcats have already been shelled in the offseason. Kansas State loses all five starters from a season ago, including its top three scorers and top four players in terms of minutes per game. 48.7 of the 63.5 points per game must be replaced by Bruce Weber, whose team has gone from 1st to 5th to 8th in three seasons as a Big 12 coach.

A year after being named All-Big 12 second team, Marcus Foster was dismissed from Kansas State for reasons that have not been publicly released. The Wildcats also lose the other half of its starting backcourt with the transfer of sophomore Jevon Thomas. Graduates Thomas Gipson and Nino Williams were K-State’s top two rebounders and free throw shooters. Tre Harris was a freshman guard who, prior to his transfer, showed promise by shooting 50% overall and a team-best 45% from three in 10 minutes per game.

In late April, news got even worse for Kansas State as guard Nigel Johnson, the lone remaining starter from the 2014-15 team, would also be transferring. The 6’1 junior broke out by scoring 20 and 17 points in back-to-back upsets of Kansas and Iowa State in late February. He averaged just under 18 minutes per game, and it wasn’t unrealistic to assume he would have led Kansas State in minutes next season. Wesley Iwundu is the Wildcats’ top returning rebounder, and he’ll be joined by Justin Edwards (KSU’s leading returning scorer), Stephen Hurt, and D.J. Johnson in the projected starting lineup for next year.

Bruce Weber’s top commit is 6’8 power forward Dean Wade, who ranks just outside the Top 100 in Rivals’ rankings. Wade figures to pay immediate dividends for a Wildcats team that will likely struggle out of the gate. Bruce Weber’s job may become vulnerable if the Wildcats don’t surprise people next year, and it will take a lot for Kansas State to finish in the top half of the Big 12.

Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 4